SHEDU CAPITAL & TIME
Cumulative farm return
Undiscounted economic return after all work and capital costs, before tax. Lines show one median-NPV weather path per design; the table uses ensemble medians. No terminal land or tree sale.
THE TRADE-OFFS
Compare six candidates
Select a design for its annual ledger. “Frontier” means no other displayed design improves all screened objectives. Biodiversity columns describe land allocation, not observed wildlife.
| Design | Real NPV P10 to P90 | NPV with funding | Habitat / land-use mix¹ | Climate sales retention² | Work hours/year³ | Equipment total⁴ |
|---|
¹ Habitat share and normalized land-use diversity (0–1). ² +2°C with −20% rain / +20% rain, relative to historical climate; storms held constant. ³ On-farm and coordination hours, excluding contract harvest hours. ⁴ Undiscounted access, maintenance and operating equipment charges; infrastructure and replacements are separate.
FUND THE TRANSITION
Capital is not the same as profit.
Compare the farm on its own economics, then examine approved cost sharing, restricted research support and repayable financing separately.
MEASURED / DERIVED / ASSUMED
What the simulation knows
How each run works
- Sample consecutive two-year blocks from 2005–2025 weather, keeping the same weather paths across designs.
- Carry root-zone and perched water forward daily. Rain, irrigation, evapotranspiration, runoff and drainage obey a water balance.
- Apply explicit water, heat, frost and wet-soil stress factors to reference crop yields. Track tree establishment and storm replanting cohorts.
- Charge supplies, harvest contracts, every labor hour, equipment, land carrying costs, infrastructure and replacements.
- Compare discounted cash flows and land-use proxies; apply one conditional conservation award and a separate debt/research ledger.
Limits that matter for decisions
Calibration plan
Install a rain gauge, water meter and soil-moisture probes at two root depths; record water-table depth and post-rain ponding. Keep time sheets, equipment invoices, field yields, pack-out and realized selling prices. Survey native plant cover and pollinators. If sheep are introduced, record animal location, weights, purchased feed and husbandry time. Use one complete wet/dry seasonal cycle to fit parameters, then test on withheld fields and seasons.
Source trail
Environmental raw files and exact query provenance are included with the downloadable scenario. Funding evidence checked October 20, 2026. No automated sensor connection or live forecast is installed.